Taleb's Ugly Surgeon

The red line is the selection mechanism for whether some surgeon gets to a certain level of success

The green dots are the surgeons that are above the selection line and the blue dots are the surgeons that are below the selection line

The big dot is the surgeon that you can move around to see how the selection mechanism works

Click the "Rotate Graph" button to rotate the graph to align the selection line with the x-axis

If you were to encounter a surgeon, then you're in the universe where he is above the red line for some reason of appearance, and some reason of skill. Click the 'Ensure Selected' checkbox to see how the surgeon's skill level changes as his appearance changes, given how strict the selection is on appearance

As you move him along the red line, you'll see that his skill level increases as he becomes uglier. That this is obvious is clear when you rotate the graph to make the selector horizontal.

Good looks hurt a lot Appearance doesn't matter Good looks help a lot
Selection Line Slope: 0.1
Appearance (A) Skill (S)
Appearance
Skill
Ensure selected